Global warming could cost Europe up to €65 billion a year, the final report of the PESETA project says
25 Nov 2009.
If the climate expected in the 2080s occurred today, the EU would face yearly GDP losses between €20 and €65 billion, depending on the temperature increase in Europe (2.5°C to 5.4°C). This result takes into account four aspects that are highly sensitive to climate changes: agriculture, river flooding, coastal systems and tourism. This is the estimation published today in a report of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC). The PESETA study also shows different regional impacts of climate change across the EU. Damages would occur mainly in Southern and Central Europe, while Northern Europe would be the sole region to benefit, in economic terms and for the aspects studied, from climate change.
The final report of the PESETA project (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in sectors of the European Union based on bottom up analysis), makes an assessment of the annual economic impacts of climate change in Europe in agriculture, river flooding, coastal systems and tourism without considering adaptation policies.
In PESETA, several temperature and sea level rise scenarios for the 2080s are considered for Europe, with temperature increases ranging from 2.5°C to 5.4°C and sea level rise scenarios varying between 48 and 88 cm.
The research estimates that the overall damage to the EU economy (GDP loss) would be between €20 and €65 billion per year. The economic wellbeing (welfare) of Europeans, which has historically grown at around 2% yearly, would improve less due to global warming. A temperature rise by 2.5°C could reduce welfare by 0.2% whereas a rise by 5.4°C could halve the approximate annual EU welfare growth.
The overall cost of global warming could be, however, much higher, as the study only focuses on four sectors of the economy and does not take into account nonmarket impacts in fields like biodiversity and ecosystems or natural disasters.
See the Press release in the JRC Corporate website.
Access the report here
